Those who were in this group at the end of last year have had the chance to witness hundreds of families desperately looking for advice on how to beat the clock and arrive to Portugal, still enjoying the NHR tax benefits.
The removal of the NHR which followed the removal of the real estate Golden Visa and the crack down on short term rentals have been, for the expats living or aspiring to come to Portugal, the main legacy of the socialist party that enjoyed an absolute majority in the previous government.
The socialists have lost the elections, but it is not entirely clear whether the center right (PSD party, now labelled AD) have actually won them. The center right is unable to form a government without the nationalist right and is unwilling to form a government with it. Unless this basic balance of power changes, the most likely outcome is a weak government that may not survive for very long.
The attack on expats is likely over
It is fairly safe to assume that there will be no new legislative changes specifically targeting expats.
The return of real estate Golden Visas?
The removal of real estate Golden Visa and other measures included in the controversial "Mais Habitacao" program had been voted against by the right. In theory, if all right wing parties cooperated on this matter, they have a majority to revert back to how things were before this legislation. In reality, it is hard to see a coopration that leads to this matter being pushed through, particularly considering the dislike that the EU has to golden visa routes. The more likely outcome of the elections is no change.
NHR back?
We don’t see NHR coming back either. The program is controversial and the cost of housing is a painful subject in Portugal and it is likely that although the current parliamentary majority did not support the removal of the NHR, it will also not go into great lengths to bring it back.
TISRI becoming operational
The program that replaced NHR, TISRI, is still missing a few important bits to get it to work - specifically, a certification process of angel investors (who in turn lead to their investee companies being able to hire people and award them tax benefits) and a decree by the Madeira and Azores governments announcing their criteria for tax benefits.
As these matters are mostly administrative we do expect these matters to eventually be settled and the program to become operational.
